Jay's Asset Allocation Blog

Blog about my off-hours work on the problem of Asset Allocation including but not limited to Portfolio Optimization algorithms, algorithms and approaches for improved estimation of Asset Allocation inputs and other potentially related items.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Black Litterman insights

So I've been pondering Qian and Gorman's paper for the last week and finally made some progress tying it all back to the same Bayesian equations. I also came across an interesting note in their paper about the weights of assets not changing under certain circumstances. Sure enough, working back with the He and Litterman data I found that updating the posterior variance means that only assets with a view have their weights change. If you don't use an updated posterior variance as is more commonly done, the weights of all assets might change. It isn't always a large change, but it's easy enough to see it.

So now I am going to back track and read all the papers to see if any of the Black-Litterman specific papers observed this weight change or not change.

Over the weekend I also found what I think is the original Black-Litterman paper in the Journal of Fixed Income, September 1991. I'm hoping reading it might provide a few more insights into what they were thinking about when they came up with this model.

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